Population and migration

There is considerable variation among SIDS regarding their total population1, urbanization, population growth, migration and age structures. The most homogenous group are the Caribbean SIDS, which tend to have older populations and slower population growth compared with the world average. Pacific SIDS tend to have younger populations, faster population growth and sometimes considerable net emigration. Among Atlantic and Indian Ocean SIDS, there are economies of both types.

Population growth is slower in the Caribbean, faster in the Pacific.

SIDS are, by definition, small. A total of 13 million people lived in SIDS in 2019, accounting for about 0.2 per cent of the total world population. Jamaica has a population of 2.9 million. In 2019, over 1 million people lived in: Trinidad and Tobago (1.4 million), Timor-Leste, and Maldives (both 1.3 million). Half of SIDS had a population of less than 200 000 and the smallest, Nauru, had a population of only 11 000.

About half of SIDS’ population lives in the Caribbean. However, population is projected2 to grow at a slower rate in the Caribbean than in other SIDS. Populations of Pacific, Atlantic and Indian Ocean SIDS had been growing at a similar rate until 2019, but projections of their future populations differ. Growth is expected to slow down in Atlantic and Indian Ocean SIDS, whereas Pacific SIDS are projected to continue on a fast growth track. Much of the population growth in the Pacific SIDS is attributed to growth in Timor-Leste. (See figure 1.)

Figure 1. Population estimates and projections by SIDS region Figure 1. Population estimates and projections by SIDS region
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Growth of SIDS population has been slower than that of the world total since 1965 -—
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. Furthermore, as world population growth is projected to slow down, the same is true of SIDS. During the past decade, the growth rate of SIDS population has approached that of the world total, but it is projected to revert back in the coming decade to around 0.1 percentage points below the growth rate of the world total (see figure 2). In general, economies are expected to transition over time from high to low fertility -—
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. SIDS are at very different stages of this transition. In the years 2015 – 2020, the hypothetical live births per woman was 4.1 in the Solomon Islands and 1.4 in Mauritius. Over the next five years, the decrease in population growth for SIDS will be most influenced by Timor-Leste, where fertility is projected to remain high but to drop from 4.1 between 2015 and 2020 to 3.6 between 2020 and 2025 -—
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Figure 2. Population growth rate in the world and SIDS Figure 2. Population growth rate in the world and SIDS
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Within the geographical regions there is also further variation in terms of population growth. The global population grew on average by 1.1 per cent per year between 2015 and 2020. Ten SIDS grew faster than the world average. The fastest growing population was in the Maldives, where the population grew by 3.4 per cent per year. All Caribbean SIDS grew slower than the world and the population of Barbados grew only by 0.14 per cent per year. (See figure 3.)

Figure 3. Population growth in SIDS, 2015 – 2020 Figure 3. Population growth in SIDS, 2015 – 2020
(Average annual growth rate, percentage)
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Note: The horizontal line represents the growth rate of the world population.

Urbanization typically slower than world average

Of the total SIDS population, 46 per cent lived in urban areas in 2019, compared to 56 per cent for the world. The bigger SIDS were close to these averages while there was considerable variation among the smaller SIDS. Only 18 per cent of people in Samoa lived in the urban areas of the capital Apia, whereas all of Nauru’s population was considered urban. A majority of SIDS are projected to experience increased urbanization over the next decade, especially several smaller Pacific SIDS. However, on average, urbanization is expected to be slower in SIDS (2.7 percentage points) than globally, where the urban population is projected to grow by 4.7 percentage points by 2030. (See figure 4.)

Figure 4. Total and urban population 2019 and projections to 2030, by SIDS regions Figure 4. Total and urban population 2019 and projections to 2030, by SIDS regions
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Note: Line segments represent projections for population and proportion urban population to 2030. The solid horizontal line represents the urban proportion of the World population 2019 while the dashed line represents the projected urban proportion of the World population in 2030. The definition of an urban area varies from economy to economy -—
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Currently, the nature of the world’s urbanization is that, on average, urban areas are growing while rural areas are maintaining constant population levels. Caribbean SIDS are the SIDS that most homogenously reflect this pattern, though with urban growth below the world average. Among other SIDS, there are considerable variations in the balance between urban and rural growth. The Solomon Islands have increasing levels of urbanization, despite having an above average rural growth rate, owing to an even higher urban growth rate. Palau’s urbanization combines a shrinking rural population together with average growth of their urban population. The population in Samoa, already relatively rural, is becoming more so through growth in the rural population and a slow decrease in the urban population. (See figure 5.)

Figure 5. Population growth in rural and urban areas, by SIDS regions, 2015 – 2020 Figure 5. Population growth in rural and urban areas, by SIDS regions, 2015 – 2020
(Average annual growth rate, percentage)
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Note: The area above and to the left of the diagonal line implies more growth in urban areas than rural areas.

SIDS experience net emigration

Net migration has a considerable impact on the population growth of some SIDS. While the geographical groups are more mixed in terms of total growth, the natural rate of increase in faster in all Pacific SIDS than in the any of the Caribbean SIDS. Over the period 2015 to 2020, the birth rate per 1000 people per year was on average 26.7 among Pacific SIDS and 14.1 among Caribbean SIDS, while the corresponding death rates were 4.3 and 6.3, respectively. SIDS in the Atlantic and Indian Ocean sit along the continuum of natural rate of increase in population.

Most SIDS experience net emigration and in several SIDS the growth from the natural rate of population increase is significantly diminished by migration. A striking exception is the Maldives, which is home to many migrants from Bangladesh, India and Sri Lanka. Immigration accounts for the Maldives having the fastest growing population among SIDS. Per 1 000 people there are 14 births and 3 deaths, but 23 more people immigrating than emigrating. At the other extreme is Samoa, which loses 14 people to migration while gaining 19 people from natural increase. Caribbean SIDS are again relatively homogeneous with close to zero net migration. (See figure 6.)

Figure 6. Sources of population change, by SIDS regions, 2015-2020 Figure 6. Sources of population change, by SIDS regions, 2015-2020
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Note: The diagonal line represents balance between births, deaths and migration. Thus, distance above and to the right of the diagonal line implies population growth.

While SIDS only represent 0.2 per cent of the world population, they represent just over 1 per cent of the world migrant stock. In 2019, 3.2 million migrants originated from SIDS, which was 250 000 more than in 2015. People emigrating from SIDS migrate mainly to developed economies. As would be expected, people tend to migrate to regions that are geographically close and share common or related languages. Migrants from Caribbean SIDS typically travel to North America, those from Atlantic and Indian Ocean SIDS tend to migrate to Europe, while Oceania receives most migrants from Pacific SIDS (see figure 7). For example, a big portion of the migrant stock in 2019 (1.3 million) originated from Jamaica or Trinidad and Tobago and now reside in the United States of America or Canada. The United Kingdom was home to another 190 000 migrants from these two Caribbean SIDS. From Fiji or Samoa, 220 000 people had moved to Australia or New Zealand. From Cabo Verde, 61 000 had moved to Portugal. Meanwhile, SIDS were collectively also home to 440 000 international migrants. -—
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Figure 7. Migrant stock with origin in SIDS by SIDS regions, 2019 Figure 7. Migrant stock with origin in SIDS by SIDS regions, 2019
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SIDS are threatened by the impacts of climate change, such as rising sea levels, coastal flooding and erosion, storms and natural disasters, and related economic vulnerabilities. These effects have also led to discussions on the potential need to migrate in the future. Migration can help individuals and families to reduce their environmental, economic and social vulnerabilities. Some island economies have prepared relocation plans to escape potential climate impacts. In 2014, Kiribati, for instance, bought land on one of the Fiji Islands, about 2 000 km away -—
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. Kiribati has a population of about 118 000 people (2019) scattered over 33 low-lying coral islands at high risk to adverse impacts of climate change.

Domestic relocation may also be an option for some SIDS. In Fiji, for instance, following Tropical Cyclone Winston in 2016, more than 60 villages were relocated to reduce peoples’ exposure and vulnerability to further risks -—
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. Climate migration is an increasing motivation for migration from SIDS, but there are also many other drivers, including the search for better economic possibilities. Even though SIDS’ human development is relatively high, migration can improve livelihoods and income and access to health services and to higher education. Often, migrants continue to assist their home country by sending back remittances to their families and relatives which in turn can be an important resource for disaster recovery -—
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Child dependency is decreasing in the Pacific, old age dependency increasing in the Caribbean

The population of the world is growing older, including SIDS’ populations. The proportion of the population aged over 64 in SIDS, and the projections for this proportion, resemble those for other developing economies. (See figure 8.)

Figure 8. Proportion of population over 65 Figure 8. Proportion of population over 65
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Note: Age distributions are not available for economies with a total population less than 90 000. Thus, data for Dominica, Marshall Islands, Nauru, Saint Kitts and Nevis, and Tuvalu are not included. Years after 2019 (shaded area) are projections. Projections are based on the medium fertility variant in -—
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The SIDS as a group had, in 2019, a child dependency ratio of 41.7 and old-age dependency ratio of 11.4. There are, however, clear regional patterns hidden behind these figures. A corollary to the faster population growth in Pacific SIDS compared with Caribbean SIDS is that there are more children per person of working age in Pacific SIDS and that there are relatively more people over the age of 65 in Caribbean SIDS. The median child dependency was 62 for Pacific SIDS and 32 for Caribbean SIDS which is only somewhat balanced by a median old-age dependency ratio of 7 among Pacific SIDS and 14 among Caribbean SIDS. The net result is that Pacific SIDS tend to have above average total dependency ratios while the Caribbean SIDS have lower than average dependency ratios. Again, some of the Atlantic and Indian Ocean SIDS resemble Pacific SIDS in this respect while others resemble Caribbean SIDS.

Figure 9. Dependency ratios in 2019 and projections to 2030 Figure 9. Dependency ratios in 2019 and projections to 2030
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Note: Age distributions, and thus dependency ratios, are not available for economies with a total population less than 90 000. Thus, data for Dominica, Marshall Islands, Nauru, Saint Kitts and Nevis, and Tuvalu are not included. Line segments represent projections for population and proportion urban population to 2030. Projections are based on the medium fertility variant in -—
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However, as populations age on average, child dependency is projected to decrease, and old-age dependency to increase. Economies with high child dependency ratios can hope for a demographic dividend in the future. Old age dependency ratios are projected to rise fastest among economies with already relatively old populations. The net effect is that it is the Pacific SIDS that will see a potentially favorable decrease in total dependency ratios. A decreasing child dependency ratio and growing numbers of people of working age can provide the conditions for faster economic growth -—
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. Meanwhile, Caribbean SIDS are projected to experience an increase in old-age dependency. In 2030, compared with 2019, Sao Tome and Principe will have 11 fewer dependent children per 100 persons of working age while adding less than one old person. For Barbados, the development is a mirror image; one fewer dependent child is compensated by 11 new dependent old persons. (See figure 9.)

The coming changes in age structure can also be noticed in the population pyramids of the three SIDS regions (see figure 10). Pacific SIDS have the clearest pyramid shape with younger age cohorts being consistently bigger than the older ones. The biggest age cohort in the Caribbean SIDS is that of people aged 25 – 29 and age groups younger than that are successively smaller. The Atlantic and Indian Ocean SIDS is a heterogenous group of economies where the collective age structure retains a pyramid shape. Here, as in the Caribbean SIDS, there are relatively many persons aged between 20 and 34. This is partly explained by the fact that migrants to Maldives are primarily of this age group.

Figure 10. Population pyramids for the three SIDS regions, 2019 Figure 10. Population pyramids for the three SIDS regions, 2019
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Note: Age distributions are not available for economies with a total population less than 90 000. Thus, data for Dominica, Marshall Islands, Nauru, Saint Kitts and Nevis, and Tuvalu are not included.
Notes
  1. Population estimates and projections reported in this chapter represent the population present in an economy (including residents, migrants and refugees) as of 1 July of a given year. -—
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  2. The projections in this chapter are based on the medium fertility variant in -—
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    . This projection is one of several population projection variants for the years from 2020 forward produced by UN DESA. The projections are highly dependent on the path that future fertility takes. The assumptions for the medium variant projections imply that the average fertility rate of the world will decline from 2.5 births per woman in 2019 to 2.2 in 2050.
References
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